The demographic decline of a sea lion population followed multi-decadal sea surface warming.

The population growth of top predators depends largely on environmental conditions suitable for aggregating sufficient and high-quality prey. We reconstructed numerically the size of a resident population of California sea lions in the Gulf of California during 1978-2019 and its relation with multi-decadal sea surface temperature anomalies. This is the first multi-decadal examination of the sea surface temperature of the Gulf of California and of one of its major predators. A three-decade sustained warming explained the population's trend accounting for 92% of the variance, including a 65% decline between 1991 and 2019. Long-term warming conditions started in the late 80s, followed by the population's decline from 43,834 animals (range 34,080-58,274) in 1991 to only 15,291 (range 11,861-20,316) in 2019. The models suggested a century-scale optimum sea surface habitat occurring in mildly temperate waters, from 0.18 to 0.39 °C above the 100-year mean. The mechanistic links of this relation are still untested, but apparent diversification of pelagic fish catches suggests a reduction of high quality prey. We propose this population should be considered vulnerable to any disturbance that could add to the negative effects of the current warm sea surface conditions in the Gulf of California.

Freshwater exchanges and surface salinity in the Colombian basin, Caribbean Sea.

Despite the heavy regional rainfall and considerable discharge of many rivers into the Colombian Basin, there have been few detailed studies about the dilution of Caribbean Surface Water and the variability of salinity in the southwestern Caribbean. An analysis of the precipitation, evaporation and runoff in relation to the climate variability demonstrates that although the salt balance in the Colombian Basin overall is in equilibrium, the area south of 12°N is an important dilution sub-basin. In the southwest of the basin, in the region of the Panama-Colombia Gyre, Caribbean Sea Water is diluted by precipitation and runoff year round, while in the northeast, off La Guajira, its salinity increases from December to May by upwelling. At the interannual scale, continental runoff is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation, and precipitation and evaporation south of 12°N are related to the Caribbean Low Level Jet. During El Niño years the maximum salinification occurs in the dry season (December-February) while in La Niña years the maximum dilution (or freshening), reaching La Guajira Coastal Zone, occurs in the wet season (September-November).

Effects of Geostrophic Kinetic Energy on the Distribution of Mesopelagic Fish Larvae in the Southern Gulf of California in Summer/Fall Stratified Seasons.

Effects of geostrophic kinetic energy flux on the three-dimensional distribution of fish larvae of mesopelagic species (Vinciguerria lucetia, Diogenichthys laternatus, Benthosema panamense and Triphoturus mexicanus) in the southern Gulf of California during summer and fall seasons of stronger stratification were analyzed. The greatest larval abundance was found at sampling stations in geostrophic kinetic energy-poor areas (<7.5 J/m3), where the distribution of the dominant species tended to be stratified. Larvae of V. lucetia (average abundance of 318 larvae/10m2) and B. panamense (174 larvae/10m2) were mostly located in and above the pycnocline (typically ~ 40 m depth). In contrast, larvae of D. laternatus (60 larvae/10m2) were mainly located in and below the pycnocline. On the other hand, in sampling stations from geostrophic kinetic energy-rich areas (> 21 J/m3), where mesoscale eddies were present, the larvae of the dominant species had low abundance and were spread more evenly through the water column, in spite of the water column stratification. For example, in a cyclonic eddy, V. lucetia larvae (34 larvae/10m2) extended their distribution to, at least, the limit of sampling 200 m depth below the pycnocline, while D. laternatus larvae (29 larvae/10m2) were found right up to the surface, both probably as a consequence mixing and secondary circulation in the eddy. Results showed that the level of the geostrophic kinetic energy flux affects the abundance and the three-dimensional distribution of mesopelagic fish larvae during the seasons of stronger stratification, indicating that areas with low geostrophic kinetic energy may be advantageous for feeding and development of mesopelagic fish larvae because of greater water column stability.

Inferring cetacean population densities from the absolute dynamic topography of the ocean in a hierarchical Bayesian framework.

We inferred the population densities of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) and short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) in the Northeast Pacific Ocean as functions of the water-column's physical structure by implementing hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. This approach allowed us to propagate the uncertainty of the field observations into the inference of species-habitat relationships and to generate spatially explicit population density predictions with reduced effects of sampling heterogeneity. Our hypothesis was that the large-scale spatial distributions of these two cetacean species respond primarily to ecological processes resulting from shoaling and outcropping of the pycnocline in regions of wind-forced upwelling and eddy-like circulation. Physically, these processes affect the thermodynamic balance of the water column, decreasing its volume and thus the height of the absolute dynamic topography (ADT). Biologically, they lead to elevated primary productivity and persistent aggregation of low-trophic-level prey. Unlike other remotely sensed variables, ADT provides information about the structure of the entire water column and it is also routinely measured at high spatial-temporal resolution by satellite altimeters with uniform global coverage. Our models provide spatially explicit population density predictions for both species, even in areas where the pycnocline shoals but does not outcrop (e.g. the Costa Rica Dome and the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge). Interannual variations in distribution during El Niño anomalies suggest that the population density of both species decreases dramatically in the Equatorial Cold Tongue and the Costa Rica Dome, and that their distributions retract to particular areas that remain productive, such as the more oceanic waters in the central California Current System, the northern Gulf of California, the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge, and the more southern portion of the Humboldt Current System. We posit that such reductions in available foraging habitats during climatic disturbances could incur high energetic costs on these populations, ultimately affecting individual fitness and survival.

Ecological patterns, distribution and population structure of Prionace glauca (Chondrichthyes: Carcharhinidae) in the tropical-subtropical transition zone of the north-eastern Pacific.

Regional ecological patterns, distribution and population structure of Prionace glauca were analyzed based on samples collected on-board two long-line fleets operating in oceanic waters (1994-96/2000-02) and in coastal oceanic waters (2003-2009) of the eastern tropical Pacific off México. Generalized additive models were applied to catch per unit of effort data to evaluate the effect of spatial, temporal and environmental factors on the horizontal distribution of the life stages (juvenile, adult) and the sexes at the estimated depth of catch. The presence of breeding areas was explored. The population structure was characterized by the presence of juveniles' aggregations and pregnant females towards coastal waters and the presence of adult males' aggregations towards oceanic waters. The species exhibited horizontal segregation by sex-size and vertical segregation by sex. Distribution of the sex-size groups at oceanic waters was seasonally affected by the latitude; however, at coastal oceanic waters mainly females were influenced by the longitude. Latitudinal changes on the horizontal distribution were coupled to the seasonal forward and backward of water masses through the study area. Adult males showed positive relationship with high temperatures and high-salinities waters (17.0°-20.0 °C; 34.2-34.4) although they were also detected in low-salinities waters. The distribution of juvenile males mainly occurred beyond low temperatures and low-salinities waters (14.0°-15.0 °C; 33.6-34.1), suggesting a wide tolerance of adult males to explore subartic and subtropical waters. At oceanic areas, adult females were aggregated towards latitudes <25.0°N, mainly associated to subtropical waters during summer. The distribution of juvenile females indicated its preference by lower temperatures and more saline waters. Presence of pregnant females suggests that the eastern tropical Pacific off México represents an ecological key region to the reproductive cycle of P. glauca.